AGP Executive Report

Global Growth Shock: The Iran conflict is rippling through energy, shipping, fertilizer and food costs, with the World Bank warning global expansion could slow to the weakest pace since the pandemic. Central Banking Reform: Nigeria’s CBN proposes tougher rules for financial holding companies, including limits on parent influence in lending decisions. Kenya Cooperatives Push: President Ruto launched Shirikiana Sacco in Kakamega, pledging Ksh50m to boost savings, credit and financial inclusion. Telecom Expansion: Liquid is expanding Zimbabwe’s connectivity with thousands of fibre kilometres and LTE base stations, aiming at broader digital inclusion. Data Centre Supply Chain: Vertiv’s acquisition of ThermoKey closed, strengthening heat-management capabilities for AI data centres across Europe, Middle East and Africa. Agribusiness Jobs Drive (Ghana): The ACPG urges Ghana to process more cashews locally to create jobs and raise export earnings. Energy Investment (Ghana): Ghana pitches upstream oil and gas opportunities to Canadian investors, seeking new capital amid market volatility. UN Africa Leadership: UN Secretary-General appoints Nigerian development expert Ahunna Eziakonwa as Special Adviser on Africa. Security & Migration (South Africa): Police raid a Pretoria warehouse, arresting managers after finding over 40 undocumented migrant workers.

Energy & Trade Shock: A World Bank-backed analysis warns the US-Iran escalation could keep disrupting energy, shipping, fertilizer and food flows into 2027, dragging global growth and raising recession risk. Nigeria’s Reform Push: Nigeria’s Central Bank Payments System Vision 2028 targets deeper inclusion and safer payments, but execution, affordability and trust are the real hurdles. UK-Nigeria Investment: The UK unveiled a £15m, three-year Growth Programme to unlock private capital, support capital markets and tech-driven investment. Kenya Digital Boost: Kenya secured €102m from the EU for digital connectivity, plus €37m for the Blue Raman submarine cable extension. World Bank Outlook: Kenya faces a growth test as the World Bank flags tough years for developing economies and widening income gaps. Shell Niger Delta Probe: Internal emails allege Shell kept pumping through a compromised Niger Delta pipeline despite warnings, raising fresh scrutiny over environmental harm. US Visa Crackdown: The US State Department says it dismantled birth tourism networks across Africa and Europe, revoking hundreds of visas. Gold Supply Chain: In eastern Congo, SigraFi and PeaceGold set a framework for traceable artisanal gold exports with working capital and refinery delivery support.

Egypt’s Growth Push: Egypt is repositioning itself as a manufacturing, renewables and fintech hub, targeting private-sector-led investment and higher exports after record FDI inflows. Oil & Markets: Nigeria pumped about 1.53 million barrels per day in May, topping its OPEC quota, a sign of stronger output momentum. Banking & SMEs: Zambia’s Bank of Zambia pledged K5bn for a Small Business Growth Initiative to expand affordable MSME finance via credit guarantees and support. Infrastructure & Trade: ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development says it will fund 70% of a “super highway” linking Cross River, Ebonyi, Benue and Kogi, aiming to cut travel times and boost commerce. Mining & Investment: Namibia-focused African Pioneer signed a nonbinding term sheet to fast-track its Ongombo and Ongeama copper projects with EPC and technical services. Corporate Results (Ghana): Unilever Ghana reported 62% profit growth in 2025, lifting cash reserves and proposing dividends. Migration & Humanitarian Pressure: Pope Leo XIV warned smugglers in the Canary Islands that they will face God’s wrath, urging communities to welcome and integrate migrants.

Youth Unemployment in South Africa: As SA marks Youth Day, a report highlights how 4.7 million young people (15–34) remain jobless, leaving many to watch festivities from the sidelines. Tourism as Growth Engine (Côte d’Ivoire): The tourism ministry says it wants tourism to drive jobs and GDP, citing 6.7 million visitors and 1.1tn CFA francs in revenue in 2025. Aviation Expansion (Uganda): Uganda Airlines plans to add 10 Boeing aircraft to boost regional and cargo capacity via Entebbe. AfCFTA Momentum: The AfCFTA secretariat says intra-African trade is on track for $250bn in 2026, urging faster implementation to build a stronger internal market. Energy & Trade Shock: A World Bank warning links Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions to slower global growth and higher food and fertilizer costs. Capital Markets (Ghana): GOIL lifts its dividend for the first time in three years, while Ghana’s tourism arrivals edge up 1.4% in 2025. Finance & Industry (AFC): The Africa Finance Corporation’s $2bn syndicated loan marks a push toward pan-continental lending under Samaila Zubairu.

Renewables Finance: Standard Bank says funding for renewable power projects in Africa surged in 2025, outpacing non-renewables by 8:1, as solar, wind and battery storage attract capital and jobs. East Africa Budgets: Kenya warns Iran-war shocks could hit deficit cuts, while Uganda expects double-digit growth as oil output begins; the AfDB has trimmed the region’s growth outlook. Aviation & Connectivity: Botswana hosts AviaDev Africa to boost routes and tourism; flynas launches direct Jeddah–Rabat flights from July 4, adding to its Morocco network. Trade & Payments: Qatar Chamber and Ghana’s investment agency explore deals across agriculture, energy, tech and finance; a report on China’s zero-tariff access flags that standards, credit and logistics still block many small exporters. Regional Security: ECOWAS and the AU deepen cooperation on early-warning systems to strengthen conflict prevention in West Africa. Corporate & Governance: Cartrack CEO responds to the death of an employee, saying the company is working with investigators and the family to establish facts. Space/Defense Market Noise: A wave of global market outlooks covers satellites, drones and related defense tech, but offers little Africa-specific detail.

Security & Business Disruption: Nigeria’s schools shut early after bandit attacks, including a deadly raid on a Kogi State school, underscoring how insecurity is directly disrupting education and investor confidence. Trade & Jobs Push: Ghana’s 24-hour economy plan is on track, with modern markets and services rolling out across districts to support continuous trading and target 1.7m jobs by 2028. SME Growth & Power Reliability: South Africa’s SME confidence survey finds electricity stability is a stronger boost to small business recovery than seasonal retail promos. Corporate Turnaround Watch: Spar’s KZN distribution centre failures are blamed for a sharp profit slide, with the retailer pinning its turnaround on fixing logistics and out-of-stock issues. Digital Finance & Talent: Moniepoint graduates its second DreamDevs bootcamp cohort, backing engineering skills as a foundation for Nigeria’s digital economy. Housing Finance: Shelter Afrique Development Bank unveils a new brand identity as it expands into a full multilateral housing and urban development mandate. Policy & Regulation: Kenya faces election-period economic risks as a new peace report flags rising instability spillovers. EU-Africa Trade: The EU and four Eastern and Southern African states conclude negotiations on an enhanced Economic Partnership Agreement, aiming for predictable rules and deeper integration.

Climate Finance & Resilience: Kenya became the first African country to secure about $700,000 (Sh90.6m) in technical assistance from the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage to assess the human, environmental and economic costs of climate disasters. Mining & Lithium Supply: Premier African Minerals says spodumene has been found in concentrate from its Zulu Lithium and Tantalum project after flotation plant commissioning, though results are still preliminary and below target grades. Regional Trade & Transport: Uganda’s Museveni urged EAC members to rationalize transport—rail for heavy goods and petroleum, roads for passengers and light cargo—while also pushing progress toward a common currency. Foreign Investment Push: Slovakia’s government pitched Kenya as an investment destination at a Nairobi forum, highlighting stable macro conditions and open capital markets. Anti-Corruption Cooperation: Nigeria’s ICPC and Kenya’s EACC called for shared, evidence-based anti-graft strategies across Africa rather than siloed efforts. Illicit Finance Pressure: Zambia reportedly lost about $3.5bn to illicit financial flows over five years, with tax evasion, trade mispricing and laundering cited. Public Health at Borders: Africa CDC urged countries to strengthen Ebola exit screening and public health measures at airports, ports and crossings without restricting travel or trade. Housing & Compliance: Johannesburg says foreign nationals are occupying prime inner-city business spaces illegally, costing JOSHCO millions and triggering investigations into allocation irregularities. Agro-Industry: AfDB committed $86m to Nigeria’s Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones programme, with disbursement still low at $25m as of March 31. Business & Sustainability: Shelter Afrique Development Bank unveiled a new brand identity as it expands its housing and urban development mandate across Africa.

Debt Relief Rules: Fitch revised sovereign criteria for pausing bond payments, aiming to reduce the stigma of temporary repayment stress—an important signal for emerging markets trying to avoid premature default. Telecom Investment: Nigeria’s telecom operators plan about N1.86tn in 2026 to expand infrastructure and upgrade networks, as service-quality pressure and FX constraints continue. Energy & Trade Logistics: AD Ports began trial operations at Egypt’s Safaga terminal to strengthen Red Sea connectivity and support Egypt’s Golden Triangle economic zone. Agriculture Modernisation: Ghana secured Belarus supply of 1,840 agricultural equipment units and signalled more investment talks, as it pushes mechanisation under its Feed Ghana drive. Cross-Border Roads: Borno traders urged Nigeria’s PEBEC to rehabilitate key international routes to revive regional trade hampered by bad roads and insecurity. Blue Economy: Togo said nearly 70% of its economic activity depends on the maritime sector, calling for stronger ocean protection. Corporate Leadership: Seplat Energy elected Tony Elumelu as incoming chairman (from Jan 1, 2027) and named Effiong Okon as CEO. Digital Payments: Visa’s study found 82% of Pakistani consumers use AI for shopping, while trust at checkout remains a key hurdle. World Cup as Business Engine: Coverage highlights how the World Cup has become the planet’s biggest commercial and cultural event, reshaping travel and attention worldwide.

Zambia Energy Finance: Zambia has launched a $600m AfDB-backed deal to buy back $1.36bn in sovereign bonds, linking debt management to a $275m, 15-year grid resilience programme to modernise electricity distribution. World Cup Access Row: Former England striker Ian Wright called the US-bound World Cup “chaos” after a Somali referee, Omar Artan, was denied entry and removed from FIFA’s roster. Aviation & Security Market Buzz: A fresh wave of global forecasts points to growth in aviation maintenance software, air defense systems, and aircraft MRO—signalling continued demand for upgrades across the continent’s air and security sectors.

Zimbabwe Economy & Trade: Chinese tech and motoring brands are becoming the “backbone” of daily life in Zimbabwe, dominating smartphones, appliances, and especially transport with locally suited buses and coaches for rough roads. Namibia Business Mindset: A keynote lecture on Sisa Namandje’s tribute to John Akapandi Endjala argues black Namibians must shift from job-seeking to ownership as the route to lasting wealth. Kenya–EU Digital Push: President Ruto secured major Brussels deals, including €102m for EU–Kenya Digital Partnership, €37m for the Blue Raman cable extension, and progress toward EU data adequacy to unlock digital trade. Regional Trade Rules: ECOWAS trade officials in Accra urged faster AfCFTA and ECOWAS implementation, warning non-tariff barriers still choke intra-regional commerce. Ghana Food Security Finance: Ghana will require rice importers to prove investment in local production before permits, alongside a $3.5bn AgriConnect compact targeting 2.6m jobs. Nigeria Energy Watch: Work has started on a new 700,000 bpd crude unit at Dangote’s Lekki refinery, potentially lifting capacity toward 1.4m bpd by 2028. Public Health: DRC’s Ebola outbreak response is intensifying as the US launches a $12bn critical minerals stockpile and courts Namibia’s uranium sector amid China-led supply dominance.

Offshore Oil Deal: The Gambia signs a landmark upstream exploration agreement with Eni for Block A1, with the state set to take a 10% carried interest via GNPC and an option to add 5% after a discovery. Digital Sovereignty Push: Ghana’s Deputy Minister urges Africa to stop being passive tech consumers and to actively shape data, infrastructure and AI rules, warning that externally built systems can widen inequality. Aviation Costs in Focus: IATA flags Nigeria as one of the world’s most expensive markets to run airlines, calling for ECOWAS to cut aviation taxes and charges by 25% to boost competitiveness. Fintech Credit Boost: Payaza Africa secures upgraded “A” credit ratings from multiple agencies, signaling stronger lender confidence in its payments platform. Payments Infrastructure Debate: EMBank’s Ekmel Çilingir argues global finance power will hinge more on who controls cross-border payment rails than on the dollar. Regional Investment Linkages: Kenya’s Ruto pitches Kenya as Africa’s gateway at a Belgium business forum, launching a Kenya–Benelux Chamber of Commerce to deepen trade and investment ties. Somalia Resilience Funding: Somalia launches an $11.8m, three-year climate-resilience programme for drought-affected farmers and pastoralists, backed by AfDB, WFP and UNOPS. Ethiopia Capital Market Opener: Nigeria’s United Capital becomes the first foreign investment bank licensed in Ethiopia, committing over $1.5m to start operations in Addis Ababa. Credit for Growth in Nigeria: Optasia’s role in Nigeria’s airtime and nano-loan credit ecosystem comes under reform pressure as regulators move to reduce concentration and improve competition.

Kenya Oil Revival: Turkana’s South Lokichar project gets a revised development greenlight and Gulf Energy’s entry, moving the country closer to commercial production—but the real test is institutional discipline, transparency and managing community expectations. Green Mobility Push: YADEA debuted its Africa-focused KIFA electric motorcycle at Autoexpo Kenya 2026, targeting boda boda and delivery operators with fast battery swapping and a 150km range, alongside local partners like ARC Ride. South Africa Postal Rescue: Cosatu welcomed the new board appointment for the SA Post Office after a long business rescue process, amid concerns about job losses and the cost of continued restructuring. Fraud Watch (Grants): Elderly South Africans say they were tricked into funeral cover after handing over IDs for “free food parcels,” with monthly deductions already triggering disputes. Nigeria–EU Dealmaking: Nigeria and the EU will hold the 10th Nigeria–EU Business Forum in Lagos on June 25, aiming to turn policy talks into investment partnerships. Health Breakthrough: Africa CDC welcomed approval of Coartem Baby, the first malaria treatment made for newborns and infants, with rollout planned across multiple countries. Banking Tech Award: UBA won the African category at the Banker Technology Awards for AI-enabled cross-border payments using PAPSS. Climate Finance Milestone: ARM-Harith secured a $76m first close for Africa’s first integrated multi-currency climate fund to back resilient energy and infrastructure projects.

Banking & Digital Push: Absa’s new Personal and Private Banking CEO Sitoyo Lopokoiyit was auctioned into a charity golf event, but the bigger signal is his mandate: deepen mobile and digital banking and integrate payments, lending and savings rather than treating mobile money as a standalone product. Maritime Security & Jobs: Nigeria is lining up EU support under a €59m West Africa Sustainable Ocean Programme to fight illegal fishing in the Gulf of Guinea, focusing on surveillance, monitoring and enforcement. Cross-Border Payments: HashKey MENA and Aptos, via Daya, launched a stablecoin payment corridor pilot to settle trade between the Middle East and Africa, aiming to cut FX friction, costs and settlement delays. Aviation Decarbonisation Reality Check: IATA says sustainable aviation fuel still covers under 1% of jet fuel use globally, with supply and regulation lagging behind net-zero promises. Ebola Response Strain: A New York Times report highlights leadership gaps and disengagement as Ebola spreads, raising concerns about capacity and coordination. Demographics Watch: Morocco’s fertility rate fell below replacement level in 2024 for the first time, marking a major demographic shift. Infrastructure Boost: Nigeria’s Tinubu-backed Gombe-Biu highway dualisation gets praise after work starts on the N1.245trn project. Tax Administration: South Africa’s SARS confirmed phased 2026 filing dates and more prefilled, simpler digital forms to reduce taxpayer time. Trade & Logistics: Kenya’s Port of Mombasa is advancing the Sh19bn Berth 19B expansion to handle larger ships and add 300,000 TEUs annually. Political Noise: Nigeria’s ADC leadership fight continues as Atiku and Babachir Lawal trade accusations over alleged primary manipulation and ethnic prejudice.

Capital Markets & Insurance: Nigeria’s listed insurers saw Q1 2026 revenue slip 9.9% to N228bn even as profitability held up, underscoring weak insurance penetration despite reforms. Banking & Credit: After Nigeria’s recapitalisation raised about N4.65tn, the AfDB says credit to the private sector is still only 9.4% of GDP—SMEs remain starved of affordable funding. Payments Resilience: Nigeria’s NIBSS glitches are prompting a bigger question: whether the payment ecosystem has the institutional muscle to prevent and fix disruptions at scale. Trade & Investment Diplomacy: The EU and Nigeria will convene the 10th Nigeria–EU Business Forum in Lagos on 25 June to turn dialogue into investment and value-chain deals. Climate Finance & Risk: African island states are pushing for stronger sovereign credit ratings to unlock climate and blue-economy funding. Water & Health: A new global assessment flags unsafe drinking water as a major risk, with African countries dominating the lowest-ranked list. Regional Growth & Logistics: Tanzania’s port-driven trade boom is lifting demand for heavy-duty trucks, with local assemblers scaling up fast. Business Expansion: South Africa’s Freedom of Movement is opening its first European store in Bath, UK, after dorm-room origins. Food Security & Aid: The IMF is stepping up support for Ethiopia, The Gambia and Burkina Faso, with accelerated talks for Malawi, citing fallout from the US–Iran conflict.

Competition & Telecom Reform: Nigeria’s FCCPC has been ordered to dismantle Optasia’s alleged 12-year monopoly in airtime credit and data advances, a move aimed at unlocking an estimated N3tn annual revenue and boosting jobs and local innovation. Cross-Border Payments: Afreximbank expands AfPAY adoption via roadshows, linking 400+ banks and pushing faster, cheaper trade settlement across Africa and China. Fintech Stablecoins: Flutterwave partners Tempo to add a stablecoin settlement rail (USDC/USDT) for remittances and business payments, cutting friction in cross-border transfers. Banking Returns: Ecobank resumes dividends with a $40m payout after a 2022 pause, reporting record 2025 profits and improved efficiency. Infrastructure & Energy: Algeria, Nigeria and Niger advance a 4,128-km trans-Saharan gas pipeline targeting up to 30 bcm/yr for Europe; Liberia commissions its first grid-connected 20MW solar plant, slashing power costs from 28¢ to 3¢. Industrial Push: Tanzania courts investors at SPIEF with its Bagamoyo SEZ pitch, while Akwa Ibom pushes the Ibom deep-sea port project toward execution. Capital Markets: Ghana’s Kasapreko IPO draws bids over GH¢1.4bn, more than double its target, signaling renewed investor appetite. Digital Services: Ghana pitches London investors to scale outsourcing and digital services exports, positioning the country as a global business hub.

Higher Education Reform: A new push argues Africa’s universities must reconnect with society through solution-driven research and curriculum reform, not “publish or perish.” Ghana Growth Signal: President John Mahama says Ghana’s recovery is now structural—lower inflation, stabilised cedi, stronger reserves—and tied to industrialisation, agro-processing and digital transformation. Sports Integrity: Reports claim Senegal’s AFCON 2025 squad refused anti-doping tests after the final, with banned substances allegedly found in preliminary samples. Ebola & Business Risk: The U.S.-Africa Business Summit was postponed over Ebola concerns, after WHO flagged the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency. Energy & Capital Markets: Dangote Refinery’s throughput reportedly hit 700,000 bpd, reshaping Africa’s fuel trade flows; analysts also expect a Dangote IPO to lift NGX capitalisation. Finance for Infrastructure: Afreximbank expands trade financing with a Jamaica roadshow, while Africa Finance Corporation raised a record $2bn syndicated loan. Digital & Data Sovereignty: Ghana urges Africa to own its data, AI systems and digital skills to avoid imported bias and inequality. SME Reality Check: Ghana’s SME financing gap is partly information access, not just capital. Assistive Tech Gap: A continent-wide report finds only 10–25% of assistive device needs are met, with rural areas most underserved.