AGP Executive Report

East Africa Energy Infrastructure: Tanzania and Uganda have handed a proposed refined-products infrastructure site at Chongoleani in Tanga to Worley Consulting for feasibility studies, including soil tests, environmental assessments and preliminary designs—aimed at boosting fuel security and regional business opportunities. Rangeland Protection: FAO urged African countries to use science and technology to monitor rangelands, detect climate threats early and protect pastoralism as grazing pressure rises. Africa–Middle East Media Links: Tanzania and Oman signed a 12-month media cooperation MoU between journalists’ unions and editors’ forums to expand training and exchanges. AI Governance: China and the US agreed to set up an AI dialogue on risks and benefits, plus a channel for AI-related incidents. EU Aid Scrutiny: The EU parliament called for tighter measurement and scrutiny of aid programmes in Africa to ensure sustainable, people-focused outcomes. Dangote Refinery Momentum: Aliko Dangote and President William Ruto broke ground on the $16bn Lamu refinery, targeting 700,000 bpd and major job creation. Nigeria Politics & Economy: Atiku renewed calls for Tinubu to leave office in 2027, while ADC VP candidate Rotimi Amaechi vowed to resign if Nigeria doesn’t improve within a year. Solar Investment: KawiSafi Ventures invested $2m in Orb Energy to scale commercial and industrial solar projects across East Africa. Regional Security: ECOWAS’ vice-president visited The Gambia to advance peace, security and development, including inspections of regional projects. Corporate Signals: Chevron reaffirmed long-term commitment to Nigeria as it expands and optimises assets under the Petroleum Industry Act.

East Africa Refining Push: Dangote and regional leaders broke ground on a $16bn, 700,000-bpd refinery in Lamu, Kenya, targeting 2030 completion and aiming to cut East Africa’s fuel import dependence while creating about 60,000 jobs. Energy & Industry Signals: Nigeria’s NNPC reported N7.2tn profit after tax for 2025, despite revenue pressure from weaker crude prices and downstream deregulation. Digital Payments Momentum: Liberia’s instant payment system has processed 5.3m interoperable transactions since launch, showing faster cross-network money movement. Standards for Trade: Nigeria’s SON urged manufacturers to keep meeting certification standards to sustain consumer trust and expand market access. Policy & Politics: Nigeria’s Tinubu marked Independence Day by saying reforms are shifting from “emergency treatment” to “shared prosperity,” while opposition figures warned hunger and hardship remain severe. Business & Markets: NGX shares slipped as financial stocks dragged sentiment. Regional Innovation: ECOWAS launched its Startup Awards, selecting 60 finalists across fintech, health, agri and clean tech for scaling and investment readiness. Energy Costs Watch: Zambia raised October fuel pump prices after tax relief ended, citing higher global prices and currency pressure.

Dangote Kenya Refinery: Aliko Dangote’s $16bn, 700,000-bpd Lamu refinery groundbreaking drew heavy security checks, with Honeywell picked for engineering and the project framed as a major step to cut East Africa’s fuel import dependence. Power Grid Upgrade: Nigeria has started building a new ultra-modern National Control Centre for the Independent System Operator in Osogbo to better monitor and manage the grid, as officials warn the country can’t “gamble” with electricity reliability. Tanzania Industrial Power Push: Tanzania’s Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project is now boosting generation capacity, but the focus shifts to turning surplus power into real industrial and mining value. Succession at the Top: Dangote told investors his grandson wants first to gain finance experience at KPMG or PwC before joining the family business, highlighting how succession planning is being managed. Energy & Industry Finance: Burkina Faso inaugurated its first gold refinery as it doubles down on processing and value capture at home. Agribusiness Deal: UAC Nigeria agreed to sell its Livestock Feeds stake to Sunbeth in a N19.5bn exit deal. Climate Risk to Food: A World Bank study warns Comoros must invest more in fisheries as climate change accelerates coastal erosion and threatens marine ecosystems.

East Africa Energy Push: Aliko Dangote and Kenya’s William Ruto will break ground on a $16bn Lamu refinery aimed at cutting fuel imports, with 700,000 barrels/day capacity and completion targeted for 2030, though a land-rights lawsuit and environmental objections remain in play. Digital Finance & Markets: Absa becomes the first African bank to get regulatory approval for institutional digital asset custody for South African clients, while Airtel Money lines up IFC as anchor investor ahead of a London IPO. Stablecoin Payments: Kora launches One Rail to let African merchants collect, convert and settle stablecoins (USDT/USDC) alongside fiat rails, targeting faster cross-border payments. Liberia’s MCC Momentum: Liberia presses the Millennium Challenge Corporation to accelerate its Second Compact as talks move into the Joint Design Phase, with a focus on improving the electricity policy and regulatory environment. Trade Tensions: G20 trade ministers open talks in Milwaukee amid US tariff pressure, forced-labour concerns and industrial overcapacity disputes, with analysts expecting deadlock. Mining for Sovereignty: Burkina Faso opens its first gold refinery to process and certify gold at home, echoing a wider West African push to add value locally. Public Spending Pressure (Zambia): Zambia plans K212.2bn debt servicing over 2027-2029, outpacing key social and farm support budgets. Health Tourism Deal (Zambia): Zambia signs a $2bn Medical City agreement in Lusaka to expand paediatric cardiac, renal and oncology services and train specialists.

Minerals & Governance: Nigeria’s Atiku camp is challenging the transparency of a Nigeria–US mineral-sector deal, saying the government’s “$700bn” figure is the value of resources, not investment, and demanding the agreement’s details. Credit & Finance: Africa is counting down to the launch of its own credit rating agency (AfCRA) in Mauritius on 7 October, aimed at cutting the “risk premium” Africa pays in global lending. Capital Markets: Kenya may expand its stake in Dangote’s Lamu refinery beyond 10% if neighbours opt out, while Kenyan investors get a new route to buy Dangote shares via NSE-linked GDRs. Energy & Industry: Dangote reiterates a push for fuel self-sufficiency by 2030 as construction of the $16bn Lamu refinery begins; in parallel, Ogun State in Nigeria starts work on a $7bn deep-sea port and Blue Marine SEZ in November. AI & Global Rules: Developing nations at the UN are demanding a bigger say in AI governance to avoid deeper inequality. Regional Trade & Development: ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development backs climate-smart agriculture in Togo, Ghana and Senegal with a $10m facility. Environment & Risk: Kenya’s planned nuclear plant near Lake Victoria faces an East African Court of Justice challenge over ecological and transboundary impact concerns.

Business & Trade Policy: Ghana and the US Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) held talks on a possible return to a development partnership, with MiDA reviewing past Compacts and exploring new cooperation areas. Regional Integration & SMEs: Zimbabwean industry voices urged SMEs to plug into COMESA supply chains beyond exporting, positioning smaller firms as suppliers to manufacturers and major projects. Finance & Regulation: Nigeria’s Federal High Court convicted 21 companies for operating without SEC licences, fining each N30m. Energy & Infrastructure: Kenya’s court paused construction of Aliko Dangote’s $16bn refinery after a petition over land and environmental impact concerns. Shipping & Security: The Red Sea crisis is rerouting 70–80% of cargo and driving new security pacts to protect oil exports. Digital & AI Governance: The AU opened consultations on AI governance and regulation, focusing on what Africa should control, share and build together. Tourism & Networks: ECOWAS Startup Awards handed out $65,000 across winners, alongside acceleration and mentorship support. Markets & Cost of Living: Nigeria’s imported rice prices reportedly fell by up to ₦15,000 per 50kg bag since January, easing pressure for households.

Red Sea Security & Trade: A new assessment warns that the Bab el-Mandeb risk is rising after Houthi control of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, with Egypt and Djibouti facing the most immediate economic exposure and Ethiopia hit indirectly through the Djibouti corridor. Nigeria Monetary Policy: Nigeria’s central bank cut the benchmark rate from 26.5% to 23%, signaling monetary easing as inflation moderates and FX conditions improve, though analysts want more cuts to boost credit to small businesses. Ogun Deep Sea Port: Nigeria’s Ogun State says construction on the $7bn Gateway Deep Sea Port and Blue Marine SEZ will start in November with near-completion targeted in about 2.5 years, backed by DP World. West Africa Food Security: An Oceana-led study argues that more equitable fishing access deals could keep nutrient-rich fish in West Africa, potentially helping millions facing malnutrition. Ethiopia Conflict & Logistics: Fighting between Ethiopia’s federal forces and the TPLF intensifies as the UN General Assembly meets, raising fears of wider regional spillovers and pressure on trade routes. Digital Finance in Africa: Airtel Money eyes Middle East partnerships and possible UAE dual listing as it pushes growth beyond Africa. South Africa Crime Probe: Police investigate a Lwandle shisanyama shooting that killed 10, with investigators considering possible business rivalry as a motive. Namibia Jobs Tech: Namibia’s AI-focused hiring platform AISODX Hire is pitching verified AI talent matching to cut job-search costs and barriers. Angola Transport Push: Angola signs deals to modernize rail, expand EV charging, and build a digital data platform for strategic projects under its transport and logistics summit.

Energy & Industry: Kenya’s Lamu refinery push moves closer as President Ruto is set to break ground on a $16bn East African Oil Refinery, aimed at cutting fuel imports and turning the region into a processing hub. Corporate Deals: Eaton agreed to buy Italy’s COL Group for €810m to expand power distribution and manufacturing across Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Mining & Labour: Barrick Mining signed a new collective bargaining deal with unions at its Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine in Mali, easing strike risk. Sovereign Risk: Moody’s downgraded Botswana again to Baa2, warning diamond-market weakness is worsening public finances. Digital Health: OneHealthEHR went live in Liberia and Ghana, expanding from four facilities to seven clinics in weeks with an offline-first system. Governance & Accountability: Nigeria’s Auditor-General flagged weak beneficiary verification in cash transfer payments, raising serious record-keeping and controls concerns. Business & Human Rights: Liberia’s Integrity Watch trained civil society and institutions to monitor forestry and extractives and strengthen grievance and remedy mechanisms. Clean Cooking Momentum: Kenya and Norway convened a UNGA clean-cooking high-level event ahead of the Nairobi summit.

Nigeria Ports Upgrade: Nigeria approved the modernisation of Onne, Rivers, Delta and Calabar ports to decongest Lagos and create more efficient trade gateways. Export Push: Nigeria plans a national QR-based Halal certification framework so buyers can scan and trace products back to the factory of origin. Energy Demand Signal: Kenya Power reported a Sh1.07bn drop in electricity sales to new customers despite more connections, raising concerns about slower business activity and more off-grid solar take-up. Labour & Wages: Nigeria’s minimum wage debate heats up as Atiku argues N70,000 has lost purchasing power and can buy only about 50 litres of petrol at current prices. Politics & Governance: Nigeria’s opposition ADC demanded explanations over President Tinubu’s prolonged absence abroad, while AAC’s Sowore is set to return to resume his 2027 campaign. Mining Dealmaking: Gold Fields is reported to have approached Australia’s Northern Star about a takeover, underscoring renewed gold M&A momentum. Regional Energy/Industry: Kenya’s Ruto praised Dangote’s refinery and reiterated plans for a regional East African refinery in Lamu. Tech & Sovereignty: Google Cloud highlighted Qatar’s data residency push to support AI and cloud adoption. Edo Pharma PPP: Edo State is in talks with Chinese investors for a PPP drug manufacturing plant to supply medicines regionally.

Clean Cooking Push: The African Development Bank urged clean cooking to sit at the centre of Africa’s energy transition, warning nearly 1 billion people still rely on wood and charcoal and calling for faster national planning. Ghana Agribusiness & Skills: Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture signed an MoU with ABC Oyeasase Yie Ltd for a $50m fertiliser blending plant in the Eastern Region, while Absa backed the 2026 GirlCode Ghana Hackathon to boost young women’s digital skills. Cameroon Banana Support Review: A review of EU-backed banana support says €48.1m helped Cameroon lift output, but export markets remain undiversified as tariff erosion bites. Cameroon Road Contracts: Chinese firms hold about 66% of major road contract value in Cameroon’s Adamawa and Far North regions, but progress is slow on several projects. Nigeria Blue Economy Funding Gap: Nigeria’s blue economy needs about $10bn over 10 years, but current budget allocations fall short, leaving shipping, fisheries and marine tourism underfunded. AI Governance in Ghana: Ghana says it will regulate AI risks without killing innovation, with public-sector training and AI use already expanding. Malaria Financing Warning: ALMA warned a 30% cut in malaria funding could trigger 146m extra cases by 2030.

Diaspora Voting Push (Nigeria): AAC presidential hopeful Omoyele Sowore will take the fight over the stalled Diaspora Voting Bill to a New York town hall, pressing for voting rights for Nigerians abroad. Debt & Cost-of-Living Clash (Nigeria): Atiku Abubakar escalated attacks on President Tinubu, citing Nigeria’s public debt jump to ₦166.79tn by June 2026 and arguing reforms are worsening hardship. Industrial Power (Ghana): IFC and LMI Holdings expanded Solar for Industries to back a 200MW solar build for Tema and Dawa industrial zones, targeting hundreds of jobs and more reliable energy for manufacturers. Refinery Build-Out (Kenya): Lamu received 2,930 tonnes of heavy machinery for Dangote’s $17bn East Africa Refinery, with groundbreaking expected soon and crude sourcing planned across East and Southern Africa. Red Sea Risk (Ethiopia): Houthi pressure around Perim and Mokha is raising Red Sea freight costs, threatening Ethiopia’s Djibouti corridor that handles most of its trade. Creative Economy (Ghana): Tourism minister Abla Dzifa Gomashie called for stronger intellectual property protection to turn Afro-Caribbean cultural growth into sustainable creator income. Energy Finance (Africa): AEW 2026 in Cape Town will spotlight how African lenders and institutions are closing the continent’s energy funding gap.

Fertilizer Expansion (Nigeria): TOYO Engineering has completed a third fertilizer line for Indorama Fertilizer in Rivers State, adding a 2,300-metric-ton-per-day ammonia plant and a 4,000-metric-ton-per-day urea unit, strengthening Nigeria’s industrial inputs. Regulation & Data Governance (Ghana): The Data Protection Commission’s Dr Arnold Kavaarpuo urged African regulators to coordinate beyond privacy rules, tackling who controls data and captures AI-driven value. UN & Sovereignty Push (Africa): Nigeria’s Tinubu renewed calls for Africa to get permanent UN Security Council seats with veto power, arguing speeches must be backed by real capacity. Climate Security (West Africa): ECOWAS parliamentarians warned that shrinking water and degraded farmland are intensifying farmer-herder conflicts and regional instability. Energy & Refining (Nigeria/Kenya): William Ruto toured Dangote’s Lekki refinery and flagged a next-step East African refinery push in Lamu. Monetary Policy (Nigeria): Nigeria fell in a September interest-rate ranking after the CBN cut its MPR from 26.5% to 23%. Digital Trust (Africa): A study says generative AI deception is widespread, with most users frequently encountering synthetic content. Agrifood Investment (UNGA): Ten African countries pledged nearly $9m to IFAD to boost rural transformation and food systems. Tourism Economics (Nigeria): Lagos’s Detty December generated big spending, but operators warn pricing and weak frameworks could push visitors elsewhere.

UNGA Diplomacy: UAE officials used day two of UNGA 81 to push education financing, peace efforts and energy cooperation, including meetings on UAE–US energy ties. Tourism Value Capture: South Africa’s Mpumalanga draws millions of visitors but captures only about 8% of their spend, with tourism leaders warning the province is still a “showroom” not a jobs engine. Digital Identity: Seamfix marked National ID Day 2026, urging trusted identity systems so hundreds of millions can access banking, healthcare and services securely. Nigeria Digital Economy: Smartphone ownership in Nigeria hit 75%, reshaping demand for mobile-first services. Food Security: IGAD warns 40.3m people across six countries face acute hunger in 2026, driven by conflict, drought and funding gaps. Cocoa Markets: West African weather risks are lifting cocoa prices as rain disrupts Ivory Coast harvesting and dryness hits Ghana and Nigeria. Business Tech for Ads: Google rolls out new reporting and AI tools for Nigerian advertisers to track searches, landing pages and ad performance. Energy & Trade: Nigeria’s Tinubu signed a $7bn Ogun deep seaport and blue economy zone deal with DP World, aiming at jobs and regional trade. Governance & Mining: Uganda appoints Maria Kiwanuka as acting chair of the Uganda National Mining Company to tackle governance and performance issues.

UN Security Council Reform: Nigeria’s VP Kashim Shettima, delivering Tinubu’s UNGA message, renewed the push for at least two permanent African seats with veto powers plus five non-permanent seats, arguing the 1945 power setup no longer fits 2026 realities. Climate Finance: Africa’s chief climate negotiator Nana Antwi-Boasiako Amoah urged predictable, adequate funding ahead of COP31, warning climate funds have fallen sharply and adaptation support is lagging. Ghana Economy & Infrastructure: President John Mahama told UNGA that Ghana’s “Resetting Ghana Agenda” is driving a turnaround via stabilisation, lower inflation and debt, and a push to translate gains into infrastructure and social programmes. Energy & Trade Logistics (Ghana): IFC chief Makhtar Diop said the lender is engaging Ghana on major logistics and solar projects, including a proposed Tema-area railway and additional power for the Tema processing zone to ease costly trade bottlenecks. Nigeria Politics: Atiku’s campaign named a “lean” structure, appointing Nasir El-Rufai into the council—while Kingsley Moghalu rejected being listed on the policy team, saying he was not consulted. Nigeria Business & Capital Markets: UAC Nigeria agreed to sell 43% of DP World Logistics to TGI Group, a move aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s logistics sector. Digital Finance (Nigeria): Bitget Wallet added Arc Network to expand stablecoin payments access in Nigeria, citing Nigeria’s outsized role in sub-Saharan stablecoin inflows. Higher Education (Ghana): Leaders in Accra called for a shared continental approach to transforming universities into innovation and jobs engines, anchored on stronger university-industry links. Sports & Tourism (Nigeria/Kenya): Kaduna hosted Nigeria’s Super Sand Eagles ahead of key fixtures, while Kenya’s tourism push leans on a digital/AI agenda for UN Tourism Week in Eldoret.

Energy & Trade Corridor: Ethiopia, Djibouti and Dangote hailed a $660m Damarjog–Dewele refined products pipeline as a game-changer for regional energy security, jobs and lower fuel logistics costs. Port & Investment Climate: Nigeria’s Tinubu backed a $7bn+ Ogun deep-seaport and Blue Marine SEZ deal with DP World, promising regulatory clarity and policy stability to move projects from MoUs to delivery. Digital State at UNGA: African leaders pushed AI and digital public infrastructure at UNGA, arguing for sovereignty, better public services and co-authored global AI rules. Fintech & Retail Investing: Dangote’s refinery IPO adds Moniepoint POS agents for easier share subscriptions, while Remita launched a consumer-focused app for everyday payments and money management. Macroeconomy: EBRD trimmed its sub-Saharan Africa growth forecast to 4.8% (2026) and 4.7% (2027) amid higher energy prices, inflation and trade disruptions. Kenya Remittances Shock: Kenya saw remittance outflows fall by Sh25bn after US NGO cuts, with CBK citing closures like USAID. Public Safety & Finance: AfDB and GCERF signed an LOI to align community prevention with development finance in fragile settings. Health & Risk: African Swine Fever reached seven provinces in Laos, tightening movement controls—another reminder of cross-border biosecurity stakes.

Airtel Money IPO: Airtel Africa says its mobile-money arm, Airtel Money, plans a London Stock Exchange listing via a secondary offering of existing shares, keeping Airtel Africa as a long-term strategic holder. Power Sector Finance: Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) is co-financial adviser on Nigeria’s ₦728.9bn ($550m) Series 2 power bond to clear verified GenCos receivables and ease liquidity across the electricity value chain. Mining & Copper Recycling: Zambia’s Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) awarded China NERIN an EPC contract for a tailings-leach plant to recover ~70,000 tonnes of copper annually—positioned as Africa’s largest of its kind. Regional Trade & Jobs: Zimbabwe’s acting president Mohadi urged deeper AfCFTA participation through regional value chains, industrial production and investment to create decent jobs. Remittances & Institutions: Research from UNECA links remittance gains to domestic revenue only when institutions and financial systems are strong. Climate, Displacement & Security: ECOWAS warns climate change and insecurity are driving displacement and destabilising West Africa, with millions affected across recent years. Maritime Governance: West Africa convenes in Abidjan to advance integrated water resources management and cross-border water coordination. Security & Conflict Risks: A report says Russia is using online ads and Western digital infrastructure to recruit Africans for war-related work, often masking military contracts.