AGP Executive Report

CAF-FIFA Power Play: CAF’s Executive Committee has unanimously reaffirmed support for FIFA President Gianni Infantino despite backlash over a shelved plan to sell a stake in FIFA’s commercial operations, strengthening his position ahead of the 2027–2031 term. Nigeria Diaspora Push: President Tinubu has approved a high-powered delegation led by Femi Gbajabiamila to the Nigeria Diaspora Investment Economic Conference in Toronto (Aug 12–15) to attract diaspora capital and deepen trade. Digital Transformation Drive: Nigeria’s business leaders are being urged to treat digitisation as a boardroom survival issue, not an optional upgrade, as AI and voice interfaces move from concept to customer-facing services. AfCFTA Awareness Gap: A new Afrobarometer study finds only 13% of Africans know about AfCFTA, even as support for free trade rises—highlighting a major implementation risk. Kenya SME Financing: IFC-backed first-loss guarantees via 4G Capital aim to unlock about $144.4m in local lending for micro and small businesses, including women-led and climate-focused firms. Climate Shock Alert: Scientists warn a potentially strong El Niño could bring severe floods, droughts and food insecurity risks across Africa from October, urging faster preparedness. Ghana Energy Expansion: Genser Energy in Ghana has bought back Oppenheimer Partners’ stake, marking a new phase in its regional power and gas infrastructure growth. Arbitration Watch: Ghana’s Sir Sam Jonah has started ICC arbitration against Nigeria over a disputed Abuja land lease, a case that could ripple across West African investment confidence.

Kenya Crisis Buffer: Kenya is seeking World Bank approval to use $450m (Sh58.2bn) from undisbursed loans via a Contingent Emergency Response plan to cushion shocks from the Iran war and El Niño. East Africa Energy Hub: Uganda and Tanzania backed a MoU for the Tanga Regional Energy Hub, aiming to move from crude exports to refining, storage, petrochemicals and cross-border energy—projected to attract $20bn+. Tax Rules for Digital Firms: Kenya may gain more power to tax multinationals if UN global tax talks shift taxing rights toward where economic activity and consumers are located. EABL Transition Watch: East African Breweries posted record Sh18.2bn net profit and is preparing for life after Diageo as Asahi’s takeover awaits approvals. Power Sector Reform: Zimbabwe says electricity reforms are boosting investor confidence and private power participation, supported by $1.1m in development partner backing. Mining & Exploration: Namibia’s Ongwe Minerals starts its first diamond drilling at the Nguni gold prospect after a 6km gold-in-soil anomaly. EV Push in Kenya: TVS Motor launched the iQube premium electric scooter in Kenya via Car & General, signaling deeper EV competition. Regional Payments: Stanbic Uganda integrated with China’s CIPS to enable direct Yuan settlements and cut FX friction for trade. Governance & Justice: South Africa’s Madlanga Commission recommends criminal probes into suspended SAPS Deputy Commissioner Shadrack Sibiya and others.

Kenya Banking Expansion: Standard Bank’s Kenya unit (Stanbic Bank Kenya) plans to double its retail footprint by 2029, adding outlets and pushing digital and agent-banking channels to grow small business, consumer lending and high-net-worth portfolios. Healthcare Tech Push: Kenya’s Social Health Authority (SHA) rollout is driving multimillion-shilling upgrades across hospitals—electronic records, imaging, lab systems and revenue platforms—to speed claims and meet data-linked reimbursement rules. East Africa Energy Deal: Uganda and Tanzania signed an agreement with Vitol Bahrain to develop the Tanga Regional Energy Hub, aiming to boost storage, refining, logistics and fuel trading beyond the EACOP pipeline. AI Capital Markets Move: Nairobi Securities Exchange plans East Africa’s first AI-focused ETF before end-2026, targeting firms with direct AI exposure. Migration Views: Afrobarometer finds Africans broadly back free movement but stay split on immigration’s economic impact, with economic hardship and job concerns driving emigration interest. Food Data for Policy: FAO says stronger agricultural statistics across 47 African countries are improving food security planning and investment decisions.

Digital Economy & Sovereign Wealth: Ethiopia has turned its National ID Program into Faydaverse, a state-owned enterprise under Ethiopian Investment Holdings, aiming to scale the Fayda Digital ID ecosystem with biometric ID, eKYC and digital wallets. AI & Healthcare: Zimbabwe’s Hwange Colliery Hospital is modernising with smart monitoring, piped oxygen, new diagnostics and plans for a regional oncology centre. AI & Jobs: The World Bank says AI is more likely to boost productivity and create opportunities in developing economies than wipe out jobs. Health Workforce: ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development urges African governments to invest in health professionals, backing AI-enabled diagnostics and local medical tech. Cyber & Power Risks: New reporting warns AI data centres can strain power systems and suffer reliability failures from volatile electricity demand. Nigeria Governance Clash: Nigeria’s EFCC froze Osun salary account; the state and opposition accuse political harassment while EFCC cites alleged diversion attempts. Energy & Markets: Nigeria expects $30–50bn from 22 offshore projects (2026–2030), while oil prices slide and Dangote cuts petrol ex-depot prices. Transport & Trade: Lake Victoria port expansion is set to revive regional trade and livelihoods.

Digital Payments & Stablecoins: Onafriq partners with Privy to build stablecoin-enabled embedded payment and settlement tools for banks, fintechs and mobile money operators, starting with cross-chain transfers and treasury workflows. SME Reality Check (Ghana): Accra’s small businesses face high rents, tariff hikes and power instability, forcing generator use and squeezing margins even as entrepreneurs adapt. Pan-African Sports Marketing (Nigeria): 22Bet signs Super Eagles legend Daniel Amokachi as brand ambassador, deepening its football-led community push across Africa. Trade & Logistics (UAE–Africa): Sumea opens SumeaWorld, a 12,000-sq-m hub in DP World’s Jafza to consolidate sourcing, warehousing and re-exports to 75+ countries. Infrastructure Execution (East Africa): Tanzania’s Samia and Kenya’s Kindiki urge faster project implementation over plans, with Africa50 backing and stronger policy continuity. Food Security (El Niño): WFP warns El Niño could worsen hunger for 18m+ people in East and Southern Africa through 2027. Hospitality Ownership (Zimbabwe): Meikles’ exit from Victoria Falls Hotel raises questions on strategy and timing as African Sun consolidates control. Regional Politics (West Africa): Ernest Bai Koroma meets ECOWAS Commission chief Omar Touray as legal proceedings tied to a 2023 coup attempt are discontinued.

Cybersecurity & Digital Fraud: INTERPOL says AI now drives over half of Africa’s cybercrime, with losses rising from $192m to $484m since 2024 as scams, credential theft and automated social engineering surge. Energy & Industry: Morocco has signed a $1.5bn deal for a Casablanca waste-to-energy project, targeting ~1TWh/year and cutting landfill reliance as it pushes a cleaner economy. Transport & Trade: HMM launches an India–East Africa container route, adding Dar es Salaam and Mombasa to expand Africa-wide logistics connectivity. Finance & Business Climate: Dangote Refinery is reportedly reviewing petrol and diesel pricing after depot rates fell, raising hopes of another fuel price cut in Nigeria. Real Estate: Nairobi’s prime land prices hit a record, with an acre now averaging Sh231.9m as demand outpaces supply. Governance & Regional Security: Angola and the AU prepare for an extraordinary summit focused on conflict prevention and resolution. Migration Politics: Ceuta’s migrant surge continues to ripple through EU politics as misinformation and legal shifts shape future flows. Corporate Moves: Cadbury Nigeria appoints Dr. Rasaq Adedoyin Salami as chairman, with Uwa Osa-Oboh added to the board.

Aviation & Infrastructure: Ethiopia’s Ethiopian Airlines is spotlighted for its massive Bishoftu International Airport build near Addis Ababa, a $12bn project aimed at boosting capacity to 110m passengers and 4m tons of cargo by 2030, with officials saying it will unlock trade and tourism. Energy & Markets: Nigeria’s Oando reports H1 2026 results with revenue up 20% to N2.1tn and net profit up 8% to N68.6bn, citing stronger E&P and trading plus long-term gas supply to its Bayelsa 60MW power plant. Trade & Industry Signals: New trade data suggest China’s EV export surge may be starting to show up in global gasoline demand, with several economies cutting gasoline imports while importing more Chinese EVs. Policy & Digital Economy: The World Bank warns developing countries have a narrow window to embrace AI, while INTERPOL says AI is linked to more than half of cybercrime in Africa and losses top $480m. Migration & Borders: Ceuta’s migrant surge keeps driving Spain–Morocco tensions as death toll reports rise and authorities face mounting pressure.

Oil & Shipping: Oil prices bounced after a sharp sell-off as US-Iran tensions kept supply-route risks alive, with Strait of Hormuz uncertainty still driving volatility. Energy Transition: Schneider Electric reported strong H1 sustainability progress under Impact 2030, including major emissions cuts and customer energy savings. Nigeria Industrial Push: WTO DG Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala urged Delta State to position as Nigeria’s next industrial hub, backing de-risking funds and investment in SEZs, digital infrastructure, and value-added sectors. Finance & Liquidity: Nigeria’s NEC approved refinancing of NNPC’s $3.3bn Project Gazelle to unlock extra liquidity and reduce pledged crude volumes. Insurance Reform: NAICOM said Nigeria’s recapitalisation drive is largely complete, with eight firms awaiting final verification. Competition Policy: ECOWAS-ERCA warned that price-fixing and anti-competitive practices are raising costs and weakening West African integration. Kenya Water Finance: Experts urged Kenya to make water and sanitation projects bankable via patient capital and blended finance to close a major funding gap. Fuel Prices (SA): Petrol fell while diesel rose, cushioning consumers but leaving inflation pressure risks. Business & Travel: Air Peace launched Lagos–Conakry–Bamako flights to deepen intra-African connectivity. Digital & Cyber: SARS warned South Africans that AI is making phishing scams harder to spot during tax season.

Nigeria’s Refining Push: NMDPRA says Nigeria is on track to become a refining hub for Africa as private and modular refineries expand, shifting the country from importing refined products to exporting them. Industrial & Philanthropy Spotlight: President Tinubu congratulated Abdul Samad Rabiu on his 66th birthday, praising BUA Group’s long-term industrial investments, jobs, and food-security impact. Economic Debate Heats Up: Atiku tells Tinubu the real problem is wasteful spending and weak fiscal management, not borrowing—pointing to insecurity, unemployment, erratic power and worsening living costs. Governance & Democracy Concerns: Cardinal Onaiyekan says bishops warned the president about the economy, insecurity and democracy, arguing people around him may not be telling him the truth and warning against one-party dominance. Global Trade Uncertainty: A new outlook flags persistent trade-policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks as headwinds for growth, with effects already showing in sectors like furniture.

US Visa Bond Shock: The U.S. has introduced a permanent visa bond for citizens of 50 countries, including many Africans, requiring deposits up to $20,000 for B-1/B-2 tourist and business visas, refundable only if rules are followed—prompting calls for reciprocal action. Migration Crisis at Ceuta: Morocco-Spain border rush into Ceuta has killed at least 72 people, with Spain and Morocco blaming misinformation and exploitation—raising pressure on European migration policy. Ebola Alarm in Congo: DRC’s Ebola outbreak has surpassed 3,500 cases and 1,556 deaths and still has no vaccine for the specific strain, while new U.S. entry restrictions target recent travel to affected countries. Nigeria Security Debate: Civil society argues Nigeria’s insecurity won’t be solved by state police alone, urging governance, justice, accountability and youth inclusion reforms. Capital Markets Push: Nigeria’s ASHON backs the African Exchanges Linkage Project to deepen cross-border trading and investment integration. Industrial Moves: Dangote signs an $800m MoU to double Itori cement capacity, while Holcim exits the Philippines cement market in a deal worth about $807m.

Ceuta Migration Crisis: Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta is reeling after a mass rush from Morocco that has killed at least 72 people, with over 1,000 treated by health services since Thursday as more bodies were found along the coast; officials say many deaths involved drowning or people crushed while climbing fences, driven by economic hardship and social media rumours. Cement Deal Watch: Holcim plans to sell its Philippines business to China’s Huaxin Building Materials in a deal valuing the unit at at least $807m, with the first 68% stake for $527m and the rest sold later, as the group reshapes its portfolio and funds acquisitions. Nigeria Business & Policy: Atiku Abubakar rejects the Tinubu administration’s economic claims and attacks the government’s response to Catholic leaders, while NAHCO reports 22% profit growth to N14.4bn in H1 and Nigeria’s DisCos leadership lineup highlights who is running power distribution in 2026. Regional Integration: ECOWAS Commission chief Omar Touray reiterates Benin’s role in West African unity as he prepares to leave office. Kenya Trade & Jobs: DP World’s SEZ deal in Mombasa is set at over KSh 12bn, with a signing ceremony scheduled for Sept 8. Environment & Governance: Kenya’s KNH says it removed decayed acacia trees to protect patients and staff and reduce risks to marabou storks.

US Visa Bond Shock for Africa: The US will make its Visa Bond Program permanent from Aug 3, requiring refundable deposits of $10,000/$15,000/$20,000 for business and tourist visas for nationals of 50 countries, including many African states—raising upfront costs and tightening enforcement against overstays. Nigeria Refining Stakes: Dangote’s $2.5bn capital raise ahead of an expected 2026 IPO is set to cast a long shadow over Nigeria’s costly idle refineries, with analysts watching whether it can force change in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna. Ceuta Border Crisis: Spain says crossings into Ceuta have fallen to near zero after installing a 500-metre floating barrier following a surge of about 50,000 migrants from Morocco that left at least 67 dead; EU leaders are pushing for coordinated border action. Ethiopia “Hidden Tax” Concern: A report flags Ethiopia charging citizens twice for services already funded by income taxes, as the tax-to-GDP ratio stays low and budget gaps are covered via fees. West Africa Coastal Protection: Ghana hosted a workshop urging adoption of nature-based solutions and OECMs to protect marine ecosystems amid overfishing, pollution and erosion. Zimbabwe Power Stability & Livestock AI: Zimbabwe reports uninterrupted power through winter, while a Matopos-led artificial insemination push targets 150,000 livestock to boost herd growth. Finance Expansion: United Capital says assets under management have crossed N2tn and plans deeper expansion across 12 African countries.

Migration & Border Control: Spain and Morocco report most of the tens of thousands who surged into Ceuta have returned, as the EU steps up border measures after at least 67 deaths; shops stayed shut and bread ran short while migrants blamed hunger, exhaustion and hostility. Regional Gender Policy: ECOWAS and Nigeria push an Abuja Action Agenda toward women’s political parity by 2035, targeting legal, financial and institutional barriers. Nigeria Politics & Economy: Atiku fires back at Obasanjo over the third-term fight, while ADC urges Tinubu to prioritize inflation, insecurity and jobs over political rivalry. Banking Outlook: FirstBank says Nigeria’s focus is shifting from stabilizing macro conditions to turning gains into private investment and real-economy productivity. Ethiopia Development Momentum: Ethiopia is highlighted as a trendsetter via urban development, digital adoption and openness to multinational investment, alongside a Green Legacy tree-planting push for COP32. Cameroon Power Finance: ARSEL shortlisted firms to audit Nachtigal Hydro’s debt, returns and tariff assumptions. Corporate Moves: NICO Holdings appoints Kwanele Ngwenya as Deputy Group Managing Director. US Visa Policy: The US makes a visa bond programme permanent, potentially requiring up to $20,000 from applicants from 50 countries, including many African states.

Visa Policy: The U.S. will make permanent a visa bond program for B1/B2 business and tourism applicants from 50 countries, mostly in Africa, with bonds up to $20,000 (effective Aug 3), aiming to cut overstays. Aviation Finance: AFRAA warns African airlines face viability risks as ticket and cargo revenues get stuck abroad, citing blocked funds driven by FX controls and regulatory barriers. Markets & Corporate: Nigeria’s stock market gained about N58.9tn in seven months to N158.33tn market cap, while MTN Nigeria reported H1 revenue up 25.9% to N2.99tn. Trade & Investment: Kenya will host 5,000+ business leaders in October to push AfCFTA deals via ACIS 2026. Infrastructure: ECOWAS Bank and Bauchi State signed $91.63m for 24 road and bridge projects. Energy Disruption: Nigeria’s TCN plans a 30-minute transformer loading outage in Abuja’s Maitama, Mpape and Jahi. Digital Finance Trust: WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says eroding trust is hurting global trade and investment. Migration Shock: Tens of thousands returned from Spain’s Ceuta after a deadly surge from Morocco, with at least 57 deaths reported.

Cross-Border Health Procurement: Kenya and 10 other countries are finalising a regional framework to jointly buy emergency medical supplies during outbreaks, aiming to cut costs, speed access to medicines and reduce reliance on overseas suppliers. Migration Shock in Europe’s Africa Border: Spain’s enclave of Ceuta has been overwhelmed after tens of thousands of migrants crossed from Morocco, disrupting commerce and triggering a political fight across Europe; Spain says crossings are easing and is setting up a reception centre while pushing returns for those without legal claims. Mobile Money & Data Push: Safaricom launches “Pata More,” boosting data bundles and cutting mobile money transaction costs to drive cheaper connectivity and payments. Trade Finance for Zimbabwe: Afreximbank approved US$190m in facilities for CBZ Bank to expand trade finance, SME lending and support power stability. Corporate & Industrial Moves: LASEPA reopens six Lagos steel firms after improved environmental compliance; Kenya forms a committee to restart Kwale sugar operations; and Delta Corporation reports 23% H1 revenue growth in Zimbabwe on stronger beverage volumes. Business Climate & Governance: Aviation bodies urge African states to harmonise passenger data systems (API/PNR) to avoid extra airline costs and improve security.

Migration & Border Security: Spain deployed military units to back police in Ceuta after 2,000–3,000 migrants surged from Morocco, with nine deaths reported and authorities scrambling to restore order. Trade & Customs: Kenya’s shippers are pushing back on KRA’s Advance Cargo Declaration system, warning it will raise costs and disrupt supply chains from Aug 3 unless delayed to October. West Africa MSMEs: ECOWAS Parliament members held a Cotonou town hall to tackle barriers hitting small firms, including border delays, inconsistent customs and unofficial payments. Nigeria Fiscal Pressure: Finance minister Taiwo Oyedele says subsidy and FX reforms’ gains are being absorbed by higher debt servicing and rising personnel costs. Africa Finance Coordination: Egypt’s central bank led publication of the first African Financial Stability Report to strengthen macroprudential cooperation. Energy & Gas Strategy: Africa’s LNG producers are increasingly prioritizing domestic gas for power and industry, not just exports. Creative Economy Funding: Afreximbank and Gebeya launched the $50,000 CANEX Create-thon to help African creators build prototypes in music, video and gaming. Cyber Risk: Kaspersky links rising cybercrime in the region to faster AI adoption and instability, with Kenya among the most affected by web threats. Mining Investment: Blencowe Resources raised the value of Uganda’s Orom-Cross graphite project to $1.254bn, aiming for construction and production from 2027.